70岁及以上人群完全性听力损失的全球疾病负担：1990-2023年及2040年预测

文献信息

中文摘要

目的： 本研究旨在描述1990年至2023年70岁及以上个体完全性听力损失疾病负担（DB）的全球和区域趋势，并预测至2040年的患病率和伤残损失健康生命年（YLD）率，从而为这一老龄化人群中完全性听力损失的预防和控制策略提供信息。
方法： 利用2023年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，我们使用患病率（PR）和YLD率来描述1990年至2023年70岁及以上个体完全性听力损失的负担，并按社会人口指数（SDI）区域、GBD区域和性别进行分层。分析方法包括连接点回归、平滑回归、前沿分析、斜率不平等指数、集中指数和自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型。
结果： 完全性听力损失的DB在撒哈拉以南非洲、高收入北美和高收入亚太地区最高。1990年至2023年，全球PR和YLD均下降，中低SDI地区的降幅大于高SDI地区。仅在髙SDI环境中观察到DB与SDI呈正相关。研究期间区域DB不平等有所减轻。除高SDI地区外，全球及其他四个SDI层的未来DB趋势至2040年仍不确定。
结论： 尽管完全性听力损失的全球负担有所改善，但区域差异依然存在，表明仍有很大进一步改善空间。各区域迫切需要更有针对性的干预措施以改善诊断和治疗的可及性。

英文摘要

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the global and regional trends in the Disease Burden (DB) of complete hearing loss among individuals aged ≥70-years from 1990 to 2023, and to project prevalence and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) rates through 2040, so as to inform prevention and control strategies for complete hearing loss in this aging population.
METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, we used Prevalence (PR) and YLD rates to describe the burden of complete hearing loss in individuals aged ≥70 years from 1990 to 2023, stratified by Socio‑Demographic Index (SDI) region, GBD region, and sex. Analytical methods included join point regression, smoothing regression, frontier analysis, slope index of inequality, concentration index, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.
RESULTS: The DB of complete hearing loss was highest in Sub‑Saharan Africa, High‑income North America, and High‑income Asia Pacific. From 1990 to 2023, both PR and YLD declined globally, with larger decreases in low‑to‑middle SDI regions than in high‑SDI regions. A positive DB‑SDI correlation was observed only in high‑SDI settings. Regional inequality in DB lessened over the study period. Except for high‑SDI regions, future DB trends through 2040 remain uncertain globally and across the other four SDI strata.
CONCLUSION: Although the global burden of complete hearing loss has improved, regional disparities persist, indicating substantial room for further gains. More targeted interventions to improve access to diagnosis and treatment are urgently needed across regions.