喉癌的全球和区域负担、趋势及未来预测（1990-2041年）
Global and regional burden, trends, and future projections of laryngeal cancer (1990-2041).
文献信息
| PMID | 42771935 |
|---|---|
| 原文 | 在 PubMed 查看原文 ↗ |
| 发表日期 | 2026 |
| 作者 | Jing Liu |
| 作者单位 | The Affiliated Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, 646000, China. Electronic address: liujing1980@swmu.edu.cn. |
| 期刊 | American journal of otolaryngology |
| SCI 分区 | Q2 |
| IF | 1.8 |
| 研究类型 | 临床研究 · 临床 |
| 所属专科 | 咽喉科 |
中文摘要
喉癌仍然是一个重大的全球健康挑战，在各地区、社会经济阶层、年龄组和性别之间存在显著差异。利用全球疾病负担数据（1990-2021年），我们评估了204个国家和21个地区的患病率、发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年，并按社会人口指数分层。通过估计年度百分比变化分析和自回归积分滑动平均模型，我们预测了到2041年的趋势。在全球范围内，年龄标化患病率和发病率下降，死亡率和伤残调整生命年下降更为明显，反映了烟草控制 and 治疗进展。高社会人口指数地区患病率最高但显著下降，而中等社会人口指数地区则呈上升趋势。中欧、加勒比和南亚负担最重，与烟草/酒精/职业暴露相关。65-74岁男性发病率最高。预测表明发病率和死亡率（尤其是男性）将继续下降，而患病率预计保持稳定。这些预测强调需要针对吸烟 cessation、职业安全和医疗公平的区域特定策略，以减轻剩余的差异。未来研究应完善模型并加强资源有限地区的监测。
英文摘要
Laryngeal cancer remains a significant global health challenge, with notable disparities across regions, socioeconomic strata, age groups, and genders. Using Global Burden of Disease data (1990-2021), we evaluated prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years across 204 countries and 21 regions stratified by the Socio-demographic Index. Through estimated annual percentage change analyses and the autoregressive integrated moving average modeling, we projected trends to 2041. Globally, age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates declined, with sharper mortality and disability-adjusted life years reductions, reflecting tobacco control and treatment advances. High Socio-demographic Index regions showed highest prevalence but significant decreases, while middle Socio-demographic Index regions exhibited rising trends. Central Europe, Caribbean, and South Asia had heaviest burdens, correlating with tobacco/alcohol/occupational exposures. Males aged 65-74 showed highest incidence. Projections indicate continued declines in both incidence and mortality (especially among males), while prevalence is expected to remain stable. These projections underscore the need for region-specific strategies targeting smoking cessation, occupational safety, and healthcare equity to mitigate remaining disparities. Future research should refine models and enhance surveillance in resource-limited settings.